TLDR

• M&A execution window opens: Valuation gaps narrow, dry powder deploys, regulatory clarity improves—corporates and sponsors shift from defence to deliberate portfolio reshaping
• Venezuelan crude reverses supply shock logic: Oil oversupply drives disinflation, reshaping energy M&A toward infrastructure and transition assets rather than upstream expansion
• Currency arbitrage favours transatlantic deals: USD depreciation makes U.S. targets attractively priced for European and Swiss acquirers on a currency-adjusted basis
• Regulated industries consolidate aggressively: Healthcare (biopharma patents), financial services (compliance costs), and utilities (grid modernisation) drive sectoral deal flow

As 2026 opens, global markets enter a phase defined by strategic reallocation rather than crisis response. After two years dominated by inflation containment, geopolitical shocks, and aggressive monetary tightening, the macroeconomic environment has shifted toward selective growth re-acceleration, particularly in the United States¹,². Fiscal stimulus enacted in late 2025, combined with moderating inflation and a pause in monetary tightening, has improved forward-looking confidence among corporate decision-makers³,⁴.

Western Europe and Switzerland present a more moderate growth profile, constrained by structural demographics and fiscal discipline, yet supported by easing inflation and improved policy visibility⁴. Across regions, dispersion in growth, capital costs, and currency dynamics has become a defining feature of the 2026 environment, elevating the importance of active capital allocation and cross-border strategy.

For M&A and private capital markets, this marks a transition from defensive positioning toward deliberate portfolio reshaping, particularly in regulated industries where scale, compliance efficiency, and technological capability increasingly determine competitive advantage⁵,⁶.